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Actual: is the actual figure released by the relevant agency at the scheduled time. NFP numbers are released on the 1st Friday of each month.

Forecast: it represents the consensus opinion/prediction of the majority of economists before the data is released. In your example, before the actual data is released, economists estimate that 138K people were employed, excluding farming.

Previous: is the last reading released, so in this case the last Non-Farm Employment Change was 121K.

There are many ways to trade the news release data, but where the real volatility comes in, is where the Actual figure is significantly worse or better than the estimate. So, in February 2011 NFP forecast was for 138K and the Actual was much worst (36K), then one may expect a spike down in the EURUSD price for example.

However, just because a negative figure in an economic report comes out and the expectation is that the price should go down, as in the USD example, there is no guarantee this will happen. In the NFP example, you need to consider the revision to the previous data figure where it was revised up from 103K to 121K.

For more information in Forex News Trading, check out this article:

http://www.henryliuforex.com/forex-news-trading- fundamental-news-in-currency-trading/

Source(s):

HenryLiuForex.com

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1 year ago

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In your example the payrolls for Jannuary 2011, we had less employment which would have a negative effect on the currency United States Dollar.
---On sites like forexfactory.com a popular news site has the usual effect of a news among other information.

---Also even though the dollar got stronger that day, which would contradict the usual effect the unemployment rate significally improved and was released same day. So that created a positive sentiment for the Dollar.

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1 year ago